The 120-Week Wait: Smart Procurement for HV Supply Chains

The reality of the queue 

Lead times for large power transformers, which typically ran between 7 and 14 months before the pandemic, have stretched well beyond 24 months in most major markets, according to analysis by PTR Inc published in March 2026. In Europe specifically, lead times currently range from 48 to 60 months for some units.

By the time most developers realise this is a problem, it already is one.

The projects that get built fastest are not always the ones with the best sites or the quickest planning approvals. Right now, the real queue is not at planning. It is in the manufacture and supply of equipment from source.

The equipment that holds everything up 

Transformers, switchgear, and HV cables are not optional extras. Without them, nothing connects to the grid. And right now, every one of them has a lead time that most developers are not accounting for when they put together their project programme.

Demand for high-voltage equipment has risen sharply across the UK and Europe, driven by the rapid growth of renewable energy, battery storage, EV charging infrastructure, data centre expansion, and grid modernisation. Manufacturing capacity, concentrated among a small number of specialist producers, has not kept pace.

Why does it take so long?

The short answer is that demand has surged while manufacturing capacity has stayed roughly the same. But understanding why requires stepping back and looking at the bigger picture.

Ken Baggott has observed this pattern play out across multiple industries over the past three decades. It happened in steel when British Steel closed and global supply concentrated in a handful of countries. It happened in oil and gas when major energy companies poured billions into reinvestment after the millennium. It happened in electronics as robotics and automation accelerated, pushing car delivery times from three or four weeks to twelve-month waiting lists.

“We are now experiencing similar patterns within our industry,” says Baggott. “As solar power and the power grid become massively growing businesses, we are seeing the same trends surrounding the procurement of equipment and essential parts that allow manufacturing to keep up with the pace and requirements of the industry.”

PTR Inc analysis published in March 2026 identifies four structural reasons why large power transformers face the longest lead times of any grid equipment: highly customised engineering, long manufacturing and testing cycles, dependence on a small number of specialist components, and a limited global base of manufacturers capable of producing the largest units.

Cost has followed the same trajectory. According to the IEA’s 2025 report, transformer prices have in some cases reached 2.6 times their pre-pandemic levels in real terms. Aurora Utilities similarly found that some UK network operators have reported hardware price increases of 40 to 60% since 2022, forcing repeated budget revisions on projects mid-delivery.

What does a late order actually cost you?

A lot. And it is not just a TMS Grid observation, it is an industry-wide problem that developers are increasingly recognising as a serious threat to delivery.

Research by Aurora Utilities published in January 2026 found that 80% of developers surveyed were seriously concerned that supply chain delays could push their project timelines off track. A quarter said equipment shortages were the primary reason they might abandon or delay a project entirely, even after receiving a grid connection offer.

In practical terms, a late equipment order means:

• Delayed revenue from a project that is ready to generate but cannot connect to the grid
• Risk of losing your grid connection queue position if you cannot meet the DNO acceptance deadline
• Repeated budget revisions as hardware prices continue to rise
• Knock-on delays across the entire build programme

It is not just the electrical equipment

Even when electrical equipment is procured early, projects can still be delayed if the civil works are not aligned with the same programme. As Nick Bellenger, Buying Manager at TMS Grid notes, transformer and switchgear delivery is only one part of the equation. Installation depends on completed foundations, cable routes, drainage, and access infrastructure, all of which carry their own risks and timelines.

Ground conditions, in particular, can introduce significant uncertainty. Unexpected rock, poor bearing capacity, or high water tables can delay foundation works and cable installation, impacting the overall programme well before electrical equipment arrives on site.

In practice, this means procurement and civil design need to progress together, not sequentially. A project that has its transformers ordered on time but has not started its groundworks investigation is not as well protected against delay as it might appear.

What should developers do about it?

Start earlier. Significantly earlier than most project timelines currently allow for.

Procurement should not be something that happens after the design is finished and the grid connection offer is accepted. With lead times now stretching beyond two years in some cases, equipment conversations need to begin at feasibility stage, running in parallel with design and planning rather than following them.

In practice, that means:

• Getting your EPC contractor involved at design stage so procurement can be planned from the outset
• Starting conversations with manufacturers before the grid connection offer is formally accepted
• Treating long-lead equipment as part of the critical path, with its own programme and milestones
• Aligning civil design with equipment procurement from the start, not as a separate workstream
• Working with contractors who have established supplier relationships and know where capacity exists

PTR Inc notes that OEMs under pressure are pulling procurement partners into conversations much earlier, and that long-term supply agreements are becoming standard practice. Developers who work with contractors already embedded in those conversations are at a significant advantage.

Ken Baggott also points to a longer-term industry shift that is already beginning. The solution, he argues, lies in opening up the approved supplier base to alternative manufacturers, companies that can offer shorter lead times, competitive pricing, and demonstrably equal or better quality. Building that trust takes time and requires getting new equipment into the field and proving it performs. But as history across other industries has shown, once that trust is established, it tends to change the market quickly.

The goal is to change the mindset of companies dictating the suppliers and specifications, and to give the end user options: equipment they can trust, equipment they know will last, and equipment that will produce faster.

How TMS Grid can help 

TMS Grid manages procurement as part of its full EPC service, which means lead times and equipment availability are factored into the project programme from the very start rather than picked up as a problem later on. By integrating the roles of Independent Connection Provider (ICP) and EPC contractor, procurement becomes a strategic advantage rather than a post-design headache.